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Zapraszam do dyskusji!
Blog is a part of NAVIGATOR to my book Truth, Errors and Lies. Politics and Economics in a Volatile World www.volatileworld.net. The readers can continue here the fascinating, never-ending debate about the world’s society, global economy and human fate. It inspires one to reflect also on one’s own place in the world on the move and one’s own prospects. In this way the user can exchange ideas with the author and other interested readers.
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(2479.) Under the title Poland’s past and future “The Economist” (July 19th, 2014, http://www.economist.com/news/letters/21607757-letters-editor) publishes my comments on Poland:
I ought to be happy with The Economist’s comments about the impressive progress Poland has made over the past 25 years (Special report on Poland, June 28th). We deserve the appreciation. However, to be frank, your hyper-positive evaluation would be disputed by many. Such enthusiasm is not shared by all. If it was, more than 2m mostly young and educated people wouldn’t have left Poland for the West over the past decade.
It is also wrong to claim that “rigorous economic shock therapy in the early 1990s put Poland on the right track”. Absolutely, it did not. This ill-advised policy, based on a post-Communist version of the Washington consensus, drove Poland to a devastating slumpflation. The illusory expectations of the government and its foreign advisers were not met. Poland’s relative success has come about not because of “shock therapy” but despite it. Our achievements are based on an unorthodox new pragmatism, policies that aim gradually for a social market economy and sustained growth, and at a fair shot at participating in the globalisation process.
So forget about the shock and focus on the therapy.
Professor Grzegorz Kolodko
Former deputy prime minister and finance minister of Poland
Warsaw
(2478.) SKĄD WIEDZIAŁEM, ŻE NOWY BANK ROZWOJU BĘDZIE W SZANGHAJU?
Przyszłość nadchodzi każdego dnia. Nie tak dawno temu napisałem w książce „Dokąd zmierza świat. Ekonomia polityczna przyszłości” (http://ksiegarnia.proszynski.pl/product,66008), s. 405: „…jakie nowe wpływowe organizacje globalne zafunkcjonują… które z nich przeniosą swe siedziby do Pekinu czy Szanghaju, a jakie zupełnie nowe się dopiero zrodzą…” To nie było proroctwo, lecz racjonalne przewidywanie, bo oto rzecz się dzieje: “The leaders of the so-called BRICS countries – Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa – sign a deal to create a new $100bn development bank and emergency reserve fund… The bank will have a headquarters in Shanghai, China and the first president for the bank will come from India… The creation of the Brics bank will almost surely create competition for both the World Bank and other similar regional funds. Brics nations have criticised the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund for not giving developing nations enough voting rights. One of the goals for the bank – whose creation has been discussed for some time – would be to increase the amount of money loaned to developing countries to help with infrastructure projects.” (BBC, July 15th, 2014 http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28317555)
(2477.) CO WARTO PRZECZYTAĆ?
Warto przeczytać książkę wykładającego w Cambridge koreańskiego ekonomisty Ha-Joon Changa zatytułowaną “23 rzeczy, których nie mówią ci o kapitalizmie” (Wydawnictwo Krytyka Polityczna, Warszawa 2013, s. 346, http://www.matras.pl/23-rzeczy-ktorych-nie-mowia-ci-o-kapitalizmie.html). Książka jest przystępnie napisana. Choć traktuje o rozmaitych skomplikowanych kwestiach gospodarczych, łatwo podąża się za linią rozumowania autora, który przekonująco pokazuje, jak bardzo zakłamana bywa ekonomia podlegająca manipulacjom ze względu na interesy oraz odchylenia ideologiczne, współcześnie przede wszystkim prawicowe. Ha-Joon Chang szczególnie obnaża miałkość i instrumentalizm neoliberalizmu.
Pisze m. in.: “Pakiet wolnorynkowy, często określany jako pakiet polityk neoliberalnych, kładzie nacisk na niską inflację, większą mobilność kapitału i niepewność zatrudnienia (eufemistycznie zwaną większą elastycznością rynku pracy), przede wszystkim dlatego, że głównie nastawiony jest na obronę interesów posiadaczy aktywów finansowych.” (s. 91). W innym miejscu z przekąsem dodaje, że “…sukces gospodarczy odbywa się bez ekonomistów, zwłaszcza wolnorynkowych. W ciągu ostatnich trzydziestu lat rosnący wpływ ekonomistów wolnorynkowych przyniósł wręcz skutek w postaci gorszych wyników gospodarczych na całym świecie… niższy wzrost gospodarczy, większa niestabilność ekonomiczna, większe nierówności, a w końcu katastrofa w postaci globalnego kryzysu finansowego w 2008 roku. Jeśli w ogóle potrzebujemy ekonomii, to nie ekonomii wolnorynkowej.” (s. 312).
Ekonomii na pewno potrzebujemy. Ale ekonomii jako nauki – fascynującej dyscypliny wiedzy dochodzącej prawdy o mechanizmach rządzących procesami produkcji, wymiany, inwestycji i konsumpcji – a nie jako instrumentu lobbingu na rzecz grup interesów czy narzędzia ideologicznych krucjat. I ekonomistów zawsze trochę się przyda, zwłaszcza mądrych, którzy wiedzą, co od czego naprawdę zależy i potrafią to innym wytłumaczyć, a zarazem uczciwych, których wiedza służy nie wzbogacaniu jednych kosztem drugich – jak to dzieje się w przypadku neoliberalizmu, także tego nadwiślańskiego, oraz libertarianizmu – lecz zrównoważonemu gospodarczo, społecznie i ekologicznie rozwojowi. Nawet jeśli nie we wszystkich „23 rzeczach” można zgodzić się z Ha-Joon Changiem, to najczęściej racje są po jego stronie. Warto je poznać.
(2475.)Dziwię się, że Pan się dziwi odnośnie artykułu w Ekonomiście…w swoich książkach zauważał Pan /i bardzo słusznie/, że celem państw wysoko uprzemysłowionych, jest nie tyle bogactwo ile dominacja, zachowanie dystansu, także drogą dewastacji konkurencji, potencjalnej też. My, Panie Kołodko, jesteśmy tą niepożądaną konkurencją i nie ma współcześnie takiej siły aby ową sytuację zmienić…i to jest druga złota myśl, godna zawisnąć nad Pańskim łóżkiem…w Polsce /z przemysłem/ stało się to, co miało się stać, stąd takie kontente opinie Ekonomista…czy przypadkiem nie biada on nad niedostatecznym stopniem wielokulturowości /Pańskiej ulubionej/, może też ugejowienia, w Polsce…jeżeli nie, to pewnie przez niedopatrzenie.
Niech Pan o tym wszystkim pamięta w swoich działaniach dla instytucjonalizacji globalizacji i utrwalenia takich “demokratycznych” stosunków.
(2475.) Poland: A Cautionary Success Story
In a June 28 special report on Poland, The Economist praised my country for the impressive progress it has made over the past quarter of a century. Certainly, we deserve such appreciation and, being four times deputy prime minister and minister of finance, I ought to be happy with The Economist’s comments–all the more so since the Polish economy turned in its best performance under my stewardship. I was charged with coordinating the country’s economic and financial policies in 1994-97, when Poland joined the OECD, and in 2002-03, when the negotiations for the accession to the European Union were successfully concluded.
However, I must frankly say that the The Economist’s hyper-positive evaluation of Poland’s progress is more than disputable. Such enthusiasm is not shared by many; if it were, then more than two million people, mostly young and educated, wouldn’t have left Poland for the West over the past decade, would they?
The Economist is flatly wrong in claiming that “rigorous economic shock therapy in the early 1990s put Poland on the right track.” It didn’t. This ill-advised policy, based on a post-communist version of the Washington Consensus, drove Poland into a devastating “slumpflation.” The illusory expectations of the government and its foreign advisors were not met. The then-government promised that the recession brought on by its policies would only last a year, with GDP contracting by only 3.1%; instead, the recession lasted for three years and amounted to an almost 20% decline in GDP. The ranks of the unemployed were supposed to climb to 400,000 people, but the total went on to exceed 3 million. The monthly inflation rate was promised to fall below 1% within three months, yet this did not happen for seven lean years…
Poland’s relative success came not because of “shock therapy,” but despite it (perhaps it would be better to refer to these tactics as “shock without therapy”). Our achievements are based on unorthodox New Pragmatism – gradualist policies aimed at achieving a “social market economy” and sustained growth, while taking advantage of fair participation in the globalization process. Thus, an attempt to eschew the “shock” in favor of “therapy.”
Isn’t is weird that such a respected journal as The Economist would present such a biased interpretation of the facts, and that it would do so after so many years and so many arguments that the infamous Polish shock “therapy” simply failed? The overcooling of the economy in the late 1990s should not have been a surprise, since similar neoliberal policies had this result; conditions in Poland were worsened by the right-wing populism of “Solidarity” (the coalition government of AWS-UW, with the same minister of finance as in 1989-91).
The 25-year anniversary of the fall of communism in Eastern Europe provides a good excuse to reassess Poland’s progress over the past quarter century, but why propagate the wrong message again? If one wishes to have a closer look at the matter, one could read my book “From Shock to Therapy: The Political Economy of Postsocialist Transformation” (Oxford University Press, 2000, http://ukcatalogue.oup.com/product/9780198297437.do), or my more recent work “Truth, Errors, and Lies: Politics and Economics in a Volatile World” (Columbia University Press, 2011, http://www.amazon.com/Truth-Errors-Lies-Politics-Economics/dp/0231150687/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1404822145&sr=8-1&keywords=kolodko). Comments welcome.
(2476.) Important, fully agree. Time goes on without looking back.
(2474.) 3 Great Issues of the Future
The human race has reached the moment, in which it must start acting in order to rescue the World. Otherwise, it will sentence new generations to a terrible fate. In order to stop this from happening, the question of whether today’s people want their descendants to think about them as people who are greedy, blindly looking for gain and opportunity, without paying attention to consequences of their own actions, must be answered.
The author will discuss the three issues that he believes are the most important from “the Twelve Great Issues for the future” described in the book “Truth, Errors and Lies”.
First issue that must be discussed is “the natural environment and competition over dwindling natural resources”. This issue regards the continuously increasing amount of usage of natural resources. The author wants to emphasise the fact, that it is common knowledge, that the twentieth century will bring exhaustion of crucial nowadays natural resources. According to data from “overconsumption? Our usage of the world’s natural resources” report prepared by Friends of the Earth Austria Organization, natural resources extraction is highly correlated with the global population growth rate and with the global GDP growth rate. Taking 1980 as a benchmark year, one can observe that the usage of natural resources has increased by almost 46% (40 billion tonnes in 1980; 58 billion tonnes in 2005) causing the hypothetical natural resources intensity to decrease by almost 30 per cent. The fact that the real amount of non-renewable raw materials is unknown is very convenient for some groups of interest. Members of these groups are highly interested in increasing the price of gasoline, natural gas and electricity. The strategy to achieve this target is to frighten the society about the dramatic consequences of exhaustion of raw materials, convincing people, that only the higher price of fuel is able to stop the environmental tragedy. The fact, that with the continuously increasing demand for raw materials such as gasoline or natural gas, makes their deposits shrink so fast, that they are estimated to last only for the next century, allow one to understand, that regardless the price, fossil fuels will exhaust in the same time. This theory is supported by “the Hubbert Peak Theory”, which says that on the graph, the rate of petroleum production is plotted as a bell shaped curve. This shape is based on the assumption, that fossil fuels in any region are limited, therefore initially, the frequency of discoveries of new deposits is high, but it must finally reach its peak and start declining. The above information allow one to discover a very lucrative lie about the impact of the fossil fuel price level and environmental safety. The only question left is whether countries, which produce petrol, will follow greedy politics of Neoliberalists, which care only about the profit without paying attention to consequences followed by their actions, or whether they will come to their senses and will use their deposits to improve people lives. As Mr. Kolodko said in one of his interviews, Russia is a perfect example of a country, which does not use its resources in an appropriate way. Easy profit from selling raw materials, lack of investments in innovation, manufacturing sector or support for small businesses is the reason that Russia does not develop appropriately. Such behaviour leads to the increase of wealth inequality in societies. There is also a serious danger hidden behind the exhaustion of raw materials, mainly countries, which will not reconstruct their interior structures in order to be prepared for the end of the flow of money coming from the sale of raw materials will start to be desperate and will be more interested in regular conflicts. In the age of nuclear weapon, any war can cause dramatic consequences. Therefore, now is the time to educate people about the social responsibility and to start to think about the common future.
In this part of the report, the author will focus on the second very important issue, mainly “conflict and security, war and peace”. The author will concentrate on the part of this issue concerning the increasing intensification of terrorist attacks all over the world. According to Daniel Burke, CNN Belief Blog co-editor nowadays humankind faces the most terrorist activity in human history. Just in the first six months of 2013 five thousand one hundred attacks were reported. In order to answer the question “why nowadays, the humanity faces the highest frequency of terrorists’ attack?” one must concentrate on the data provided by the Global Terrorism Database. This database includes very strange information, mainly a reader can observe, that just before the events on the 9th of September 2001, the frequency of terrorist attacks had a decreasing tendency. However, after the attack on the World Trade Centre it has significantly increased. According to the same source, after the attack from the 9th of September 2001, the USA has improved its interior safety against terrorists. The author believes, that Zbigniew Brzeziński correctly explains the reason of such a disproportion between the USA and the rest of the globe, in the article “Terrorized by “War on Terror”” for the Washington Post. He says that after the attack on WTC the USA’s media and government started to introduce terrorists as the biggest threat of humankind. By this approach, they have done a big favour to terrorists; mainly they sow fear in people’s hearts. According to Mr. Brzeziński the USA made all Muslims their enemy and they started to harass those people. Such a policy finished in radical Muslims fury about the Western Countries and the caused death of many people. As one can conclude from the United States example it is possible to overwhelm terrorists, but in order to do so, all-powerful countries must work together. Unfortunately, some countries have not yet matured enough for such behaviour. The neoliberalism took over their common sense and they care only about their wellbeing. The author believes that the remaining events in post American Iraq show that the real test is near. Mainly, without common strategy regarding the issue of terrorism, humankind may face in the future a new type of threat the nuclear terrorism.
In this part of the report, the author concentrates on the last, but not least important issue of the future, mainly “the knowledge based economy and society”. The author strongly believes that knowledge will be one of the most valuable resources in the future. It may even transcend different capital, land and labour force resources by its meaning for development. Recently, one can see the transformation of the meaning of wealth creation from capital to knowledge and intelligence. Firstly, the author will define the meaning of knowledge. Majority connects the meaning of the word “Knowledge” with the one of “Information”. In reality, knowledge is the information, which was analysed, structured and further distributed. According to Howitt, knowledge can be divided into two categories: confident knowledge and tacit knowledge. It has already got several names, such as New Economy, alternatively labelled a knowledge-based economy, an “age of access” (Rifkin 2000), a “network economy” (Castells 2000) or a “cognitive capitalism” (Corsani et al. 2002). The result of such change maybe technical progress, which has made information more available for usual people. Veblen’s approach refutes the theory that knowledge is simply a new source of productivity. Usage of knowledge to generate tangible and intangible values. At the present, knowledge-based economy is still not developed. To build it, the population should not just learn to accumulate the amount of information, but to be able to transform it into knowledge and be able to understand and implement it for progress and development. One can determine the existence of knowledge-based economy when production and distribution are based on knowledge and information, thus those who have better knowledge, contribute more. The author believes that those who think will become more and more important. Research, development and innovation should not be just based on public organizations and on government spending, but private companies should use knowledge as a key for development and competitiveness. However, the use of knowledge differs from company to company as well as from country to country. There were always those who invent, innovate and just imitate progress, which basically depended on the level of development of countries. It is worth understanding that a knowledge-based economy is a kind of luxury good and not affordable for everybody, however the overall global success will be when countries will stop imitating, and pay more attention to invention rather than innovation. Success is not just to generate knowledge, but rather to be able to use it, which also depends on the regulations regarding legal side (patterns, recipes, licenses etc.)
Maksymilian Kulczycki
Kozminski University
ID 22890
(2471.) The main causes of financial economic crisis
Around the world, students in business schools, including me, are taught about the notorious economic event, namely financial crisis 2007 which affected the global economy and consequences of which are still attempted to be eliminated. Since then enough water has flowed under the bridge so that the topic could be covered in the media and throughout the internet. The main causes of the crisis have been defined numerous times and the guilty allegedly have been already found. The TIME Magazine has even named “25 people to Blame for the Financial Crisis”.
You can find the basic explanations of why the crisis has happened in any financial textbook. The most versatile one states that “mismanagement of financial innovation in the subprime residential mortgage market and a bursting of a bubble in housing prices were the underlying forces behind the financial crisis”. Long story short, computerization and advances in the field of information technology gave rise to subprime mortgage lending, which is lending to people with poor credit history. These loans were secured by pledged real estate. Besides it also allowed bundling the granted small loans into mortgage-backed securities. Thereby banks made loan to customers and immediately passed them further to investors with discount. Obviously, such model was subject to agent-principal problem: banks were making as many loans as possible earning fees and did not care whether borrowers would default or not. The scheme has also involved other parts such as investment banks and credit ratings.
Such reasoning is considered as a conventional wisdom. However, is it developed and deep enough in order explain all the causes involved? The answer is not. The aforementioned argumentation is rather the consequences which had occurred after the real cause took place. It was unpreventable and it would happen sooner or later as long all the involved factors coincide the way they did. And the TIME Magazine is wrong if they think that all 25 people mentioned are those to be blamed. Most of those mentioned on the list were top management of the financial institutions who were just trying to maximize their profit. And of course almost everybody would try. If there are all conditions for that, why would not you use such an opportunity?
What I am trying to say is rather related to political economy then to simply economy. Neoliberalism – that was the source out of which the crisis arose. It did not appear in 2008 suddenly. Its roots go deep to 1970s when the neoliberalism was eventually formed in the USA as an ideology and started to take over. From that time onwards, driven by the dogma that private sector has to be maximally free, neoliberalists were changing the structure of US economy continuously. The major acts that regulated financial sector were repealed and other acts that deregulate the activity of financial institutions were signed into law. As a result, the inequality of income and wealth, which is measured by Gini coefficient, started to rise for 38 consecutive years from 1968 to 2006. In 2007 it dropped since with the beginning of crisis the financial sector suffered most, and with it the wealthiest population of the country.
The recent Global Financial Crisis is a glaring example of why the economy cannot last for a long time without the control from the government side. It showed that without regulation the economy destroys itself in the pursuit of profit. In such an economy the fundamental crisis is inevitable.
But the most striking is the fact that neoliberalism has already proven its incompetence as an economic system earlier. In the book “A Brief History of Neoliberalism” David Harvey explains how neoliberalism failed in ex-Soviet countries, Latin America, Africa and other countries. It resulted in huge losses in Russia and Ukraine after implementing shock therapy, economic collapse in Argentina, nothing neither positive nor negative in South Africa, mixed economic performance in Chile, whose successes owe more to state intervention than to the invisible hand of the free market, and other countries. It is interesting that Chine was also attempted to be converted to neoliberal economic path, but, fortunately, it did not succumb under pressure. Now we can compare the achievements of both China and Russia. Even if we assess the performance of neoliberalists from the GDP perspective, which has to be modified or better changed as an indicator, the global output growth has declined on average from 1960-2003.
Talking about neoliberalism, it would be a mistake to miss Washington Consensus. Operating through International Monetary Fund, World Bank, and the US Treasury Department, the proponents imposed their economic views on other countries. This is another fundamental mistake made by neoliberalists: you cannot have one policy that suits all the economies throughout the world. There are about 200 sovereign states with their own culture and history. Therefore, the economic policy has to account for social, cultural, historical aspects etc. It should address the needs and challenges, not subordinate to dogma. Therefore, the development strategy has to be flexible and pragmatic.
As I have already mentioned, neoliberalism was discredited because of wrong values that lie in its foundation. It showed its incapability to guide the county to prosperous future. However, even after all the mistakes it had made, among which most recent and crucial was global financial crisis, it was not discarded. Thus it raises the issue of why people are irrational about politics. We can leave it to social science scholars. The only thing we can do is to spread the knowledge and educate others in order to avoid such crisis in the future. It’s never too late to make things right.
Illias Habbasov
Kozminski University
ID 26402
(2473.) One should remember, though, that if it was not for the neoliberalizm the crisis of 1970s would have gone much deeper and would have been impossible to stop. The profanation of Keynesian ideas and his guidance on directing economies by powerfull workers unions and left wing governments succumbing to their demands, especially in UK, would have brought the developed nations economies to their knees. Thanks to the Margaret Thather’s brave and forceful implementation of the new neoliberal ideas it was possible to finally break free from manace and blackmail of the workers unions that had way too much influence over the governments in a few important countries, notably UK and USA. It was thanks to that great leader that the stench from Londons garbage piles did not spread to other parts of the world. Please, keep in mind that any economic model, if unchecked, may backfire and cause a havoc. Those checks are the responsibilities of governments! One example of the government failure in guarding the ecxesses in the economy, this one in USA, is the elimination of Glass-Steagall Act which was implemented right after the Great Depression of 1920s. Many argue that this action was mainly responsible for the excesses of the subprime lending. This time, however, it was the Clinton’s government who succumbed to the persuasion of the powerfull proponents and representatives of the neoliberal ideas. The question, though, is who should be blamed here? The government or the neoliberal groups who again had big influence over it?
The crises of 2008 made many people even more aware of one very important conclusion: that governments actions are often reactionary and not preventionary. A crises has to happen in order for the governments to implement some necessary checks in order to prevent it in the future. The sad part of it is that the private enterprise is always smarter and quicker than their government and it will always find something new to exploit to the point of new extreme to cause another crises. The good side, however, is that with the neoliberal model in place, it is possible to come out of the crises quickly. Much more optimistic than the miserable experience of 1970s.
With better government checks in place we should be coming closer to the great ideas of the brilliant thinker who was Keynes. What he actually meant in brief was to leave the free market in peace, act only during the crises and guard the economy from the excesses of the interest groups. What powerful leaders of workers unions did was they modified his ideas into: “act only in our interest at all times and let the free market work mainly for us”. Unfortunately, they must have ignored the fact that strangled free market is not free any more and cannot work efficiently enough. Therefore, the drastic change was necessary, the neoliberalism took its course, went through its own excess and now, after the crises, its own fix. Sometimes lots of water has to flow through under the bridge for us to come to some constructive conclusions. Keynes should have been listened to and taken seriously from the start. Instead we have come the full cycle of more the 70 years to realize one thing: let the free market run its course, keep checks in place and act to avoid deep crisis.
(2470.) 3 Great Issues of the Future
The future of the human kind and its home, the planet Earth, faces many issues, challenges. The following essay focuses on just 3 from the overwhelming number of problems. The first one is the issue of the environment and its natural resources. The disaster of the first one and the scarcity of the other is the most dangerous threat to the human kind posed by nature itself. Technological and scientific development on the other hand could be the single most important remedy to the environmental threat. Whilst the human demography, specifically migration is a factor which influences greatly how the above two issues are dealt with.
One of the ways that technology and the environment are interconnected is that in order for the development process to take place natural resources have to be used. Although some of the progress utilizes assets which the planet has plenty of, it’s not always the case. In addition some of the technological evolution causes damage to the environment. The issue here is that the Earth cannot sustain hardship indefinitely. The irony is that technology can be also a remedy. However in order to achieve that, more focus has to be applied. For that to take place, some spotlight has to be shifted from other areas, which creates a dilemma in itself. Spending on military research could be minimalized. This would achieve the desired result in the context of the environment, even if it is difficult to achieve. How can one convince a country or a transnational corporation not to spend money on military research and development, if the world is full of political tensions which could lead to more conflicts? Furthermore, the scarcity of resources could also lead to some countries taking military actions in pursuit of their own interests. The time left to take action is running out, leading to more and more extreme viewpoints. One of which is that maybe we should decrease the pace of medical research. Why should one try to eradicate illnesses and to prolong the life of an individual if an environmental catastrophe would occur at such a scale that it would lead to an inhabitable planet? Slowing medical research as an answer to such a notion is completely unethical and would do more harm than good in the long term. In addition one could ask the question, if the planet and its environment can be at all saved at this point. Such a viewpoint would negate any attempt to have more of the technological process directed to the environment. If this is the case then development should focus on facilitating life on other planets. Although such a view may be seen as extreme, it should be taken seriously as it is a possible outcome.
When the population migrates from one country to another, it takes with it its knowledge, skills and talent. Looking from the technology viewpoint at the general migration from the African to the European continent, one could view it as a positive one. Europe has currently better facilities where innovation can take place. In addition, the regulations as well as the financial support endorse the scientific progress. Therefore the talent and skills of the migrants will be fully utilized in Europe. However, this will result in an even bigger economic and technological gap between those continents. On the other hand, if the migration would be limited the possible result could be a slowdown of the technological progress due to the potential scientific talent being held back by the lack of facilities and financial support in Africa. From the perspective of Europe and the humankind such result is a negative one. Technological progress should not be slowed down. In the case of the environmental issue, new technology has to be implemented now as the delay could cause irreversible damage. Therefore the time is of essence here. The dilemma here is that what is a benefit for Europe is a loss for Africa.
The connection between the process of migration and the environment is that due to the migration the density of population in some places grows at the expense of others. This leads to natural resources being used at a faster pace than they would have been. In the example of Europe and Africa this results in the African resources being utilized at a slower rate. At the same time European resources are at risk of being exhausted because of immigration. That leads to the question whether European descent would necessarily be a drama for the mankind. After all we see a lot of other signals pointing out to the ever decreasing roll of Europe in the world affairs.
The issues of technology, the environment and human migration are at a first glance separate ones. However, as the essays shows, the situation is much more complicated. The problems are interconnected in many ways, as are their possible solutions. When one creates a system to confront a given issue it severely affects the other one, in most cases the impact is a negative. Therefore it is imperative to firstly analyse the problem in itself and then how it is connected to the other issue. Without this second step the possible solution is meaningless. Furthermore, in order to create a solution to the issues of the future it is necessary to stop looking only at the narrow interest of the individual, company, country or region. The issues can no longer be assigned to a single state, as the problems are global and in need of comprehensive and smart solutions. Finally those solutions must complement each other and be of a long term nature, and not merely quick fixes.
Marcin Kobieracki
ID 26430
BBA Finance and Accounting 2 Year
Kozminski University
(2469.) WHAT ONE SHOULD READ?
If you are interested in inspiring interpretation of the nature of long-term growth processes and you are looking for an answer to the question how the West became rich, and why China has been growing so fast while Russia until recently was rather messy, you should read the book called “Mixed Fortunes: An Economic History of China, Russia, and the West” (Oxford University Press, 2014, 191 pp), written by Vladimir Popov. It is interesting, thought-provoking and unorthodox explanation of the mechanism of economic expansion and growth. The books looks deep into the history, yet he does it for the purpose to propose suggestions for the future economic policies and development strategies. The author – well-established international economist – argues that although always there is a set of growth factors, the crucial meaning has the state’s institutional capacity. The capital – real, financial, human – does matter, inequalities do matter, but what matters most are the institutions and the governments’ ability to enforce them on economic agents. Do read the book. It’s definitely worth your attention. And it is not too long.
This is what the publisher, Oxford University Press, says about the Popov’s book: “The rise of the West is often attributed the presence of certain features in Western countries from the 16th century that were absent in more traditional societies: the abolition of serfdom and Protestant ethics, the protection of property rights, and free universities. The problem with this reasoning is that, before the 16th century, there were many countries with social structures that possessed these same features that didn’t experience rapid productivity growth.
This book offers a new interpretation of the ‘Great Divergence’ and ‘Great Convergence’ stories. It explores how Western countries grew rich and why parts of the developing world (South and East Asia and the Middle East) did not catch up with the West from 1500 to 1950 but began to narrow the gap after 1950. It also examines why others (Latin America, South Africa, and Russia) were more successful at catching up from 1500 to 1950, but then experienced a slowdown in economic growth compared to other developing countries. Mixed Fortunes offers a novel interpretation of the rise of the West and of the subsequent development of ‘the rest’ and China and Russia, important examples of two groups of developing countries, are examined in greater detail.” (http://www.amazon.com/Mixed-Fortunes-Economic-History-Russia/dp/0198703635/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1403218466&sr=8-1&keywords=popov+vladimir)
(2468.) 3 of the Great Issues of the Future
First of all, I would like to say; choosing 3 out of 12 great challenges of future it is tough, they all are important in their state. It is really amazing how the world is becoming more interconnected together, have you thought about it or noticed?. For example in the grocery and supermarket you can buy goods from all around the world, pistachio from Iran, olive oil from Greece, wine from France. One of the most amazing thing is that factories are in different place than headquarter of companies, like Zara is Spanish brand but produce in China, that means you can buy clothes from different countries too. There is funny thing you drive car which made in USA, Europe or Japan, and in the evening you turn on TV which made in South Korea and eat pizza from Italy. An about news, which you can keep up to date 24/7 days by internet, review and evaluating. Another example which show how it is globalization and so interconnected together, which actually happened drought on the American and Canadian and the same time affects the price of bread partly or when the war or conflict happened in middle east, price of gas and oil increase. I would like to say that the book, Truth, Errors, and Lies by Prof. Grzegorz Kolodko is explained in simplicity way to understand the concept of globalization and how transformation and development is happened, and I found this comment on this book which consider my view, ”Truth, Errors, and Lies distills lessons for development learned from a whole life of work and observations by a thinker and practitioner of economic transition and real-world politics.” — Justin Yifu Lin, chief economist and senior vice president of the World Bank.
In my point of view, after reviewing all those issues, I came up with: 1. Poverty, misery and social inequality, 2. Demographic process and human migration 3. Conflicts and security, peace and war. However before everything, we need to understand what is globalization, according to Prof. Grzegorz Kolodko defines globalization as, “the historical process of liberalization and integration of goods, capital and labor markets, which have hitherto functioned to a certain extent in separation into a single world marketplace”.
In the first issues – Poverty, misery and social inequality -, there is general question if the impact of globalization is reduced the poverty and inequality? Mostly answer has positive effectiveness, because of regional integration which led them to fast growing. On the other hand, according World Bank, 1.4 billion people live at this poverty line or below, which this is more than the previous estimate of 984 million with the older measure of a $1 a day in 2004. In addition, the World Bank notes that “the incidence of poverty in the world is higher than past estimates have suggested. The main reason is that [previous data] had implicitly underestimated the cost of living in most developing countries.” However, as we can see answering to the question is not easy. reality unfortunately is that the gap between the rich and poor is quite wide in most places. For example, according to Central World Bank, about 0.13% of the world’s population controlled 25% of the world’s assets in 2005. The wealthiest 20% of the world’s population consumes 76.6% of the world’s goods while 80% of humanity gets the remainder.
Immigration also is one of great challenges which will face on future. There are situations and conditions that push people away from their homes. These negative situations are less opportunities to have job, lack of human right, regime of country or war. Generally immigration are from developing countries which called third world, to developed countries such as USA, West Europe and etc. On the other hand, the immigration for some countries have negative impact that indirect way effect in their economy and environment state. For instance, there are countries right now they implied the strict law for immigration people to their country such as UK and Australia etc. Specially UK, which now they faced big challenge because they want to avoiding immigrating people from poorer countries in EU to UK, according to the EU law that UK can not avoid people from EU zone.
I would like to explain why I choose those three great issues and how they are connected together in examples. I am from Iran, and there are several conflicts between Iran and USA. USA and UN Security Council have used sanctions around 30 years. The main reason of the sanctions is the nuclear program of Iran, which they fear is intended for developing the capability to produce nuclear weapons. In addition, mainly sanctions imposed by USA, such as investments in oil, gas and petrochemicals, exports of refined petroleum products, and business dealings with the Iranian Republican Guard Corps. This encompasses banking and insurance transactions including with the Central Bank of Iran, shipping, web-hosting services for commercial endeavors, and domain name registration services. Maybe we think, it is one country does sanctions, what it is related to globalization? Yes it is true, all sanctions imposed by one country, however in some way USA is a leadership country and have many allies, and on the other hand many countries have business with USA. Moreover United Stated forces them to go follow of sanctions.
And then what happened in my country Iran, the economy slowly collapsed. Rich people got richer and the same time poor people got poorer, which mean inequality rose. The same time, inflation increased, which declining purchase power of people. Moreover, sanctions effected massively in development of Oil and Gas energy and exporting too, which took by Iran compititor such as Qatar, Iraq. Immigration is happened too, each year many people plan to immigrate to Europe or North America countries. The most immigration people are intelligence and rich, that influence in our economy and infrastructure of country. However, recently, the policies of country has changed, and seem to change the game, hopefully better future for people in Iran.
Finally, as we can look around the world today with those great challenges of future, the world is at the conflicts, the devastation of the environment and the human and animal enduring. I would say that my wish is for a peaceful, healthier and happier world. I have hope for it, without hope, there is no life!
Hessam Alipour
24414
Kozminski University
(2467.) There are twelve great issues that we have to take into consideration when it comes to future. Each of them has a significant impact on the life of this world. How accurate forecasts are nobody knows yet, but with the knowledge we are thought by history and from careful observation we can try to predict the upcoming scenario.
In this essay I will discus three of these issues, which are conflicts and security, technological and scientific advancements and rate, and limits of economic growth.
The past has shown us, unfortunately, that there is nothing that drives technological development as much as war. Continued arm races have led to numerous studies, which were generously invested, and enormous amounts of money were consumed by them. You can see a clear correlation, the trend that shows a problem between arm conflict’s, technological development and significant debt to the state.
The correlation between these three issues makes the connection mainly important to me.
It is a common knowledge that an investment in its own armaments industry leads the pace of economic development. Analyze of the defense market countries says that buying military equipment in their home countries propel its economy in a significant way, because each country transfers part of its GDP on armaments. Despite its original purpose, military inventions contributed to the development of technology, which is important to improve the quality of life. One of the examples can be nuclear power plants thanks to which we can produce clean energy, which is currently one of the most effective and ecological friendly sources of energy. Creator of V2 rockets Wernher von Braun, who is called the father of rocket projectiles, redirected idea armaments industry in thought of technological progress, which contributed to sending the man in space.
For many years, the great minds were engaged in the development of military techniques. This development was so big and unbelievable for some of us, that the consequences of the conflict for large scale have become a discussion object between experts of economics sciences. Big financial expenditures put in the armaments industry of 50s absorbing money from taxpayers in the United States took attention of specialists on economy. People considering consequences of armed conflict hit the great dependence between these two factors. It points out that an armed conflict is a tragedy not only for small and large communities because of the war in the most common term of that but also in terms of the consequences of an economic nature. Therefore, the paradox is that war is not what drives the economy as said in the introduction but may weaken or even stop its development.
Technical and scientific progress is closely associated with the economic growth. The development of the economies of poor nations must accelerate among others by the increase in production. To reduce the development gap between the more developed regions there must be build development strategies, and these regions must tone down the economic dynamism. In the literature, it is stated that the current dynamic predictors are not met, ergo, economic growth has no right to remain at the current level for the next 50 to 100 years. Another important aspect for the countries of the former Eastern bloc is that these countries, in countries of Central and Eastern Europe did not persist into 2035. Of course talking about the growth constant. However looking at the economy of China – its dynamism and the current level of development come to the conclusion that this must be giving a chance to a smaller but equally significant market economies by slowing down their own. The economy anyway must release; this is due to slow exhaustible natural resources. Slowdown in China and other business magnates in the future will increase the importance of the smaller markets in the world and thereby reduce the gap that makes them different from each other.
Obviously will be difficult to repeat the success of markets such as the markets of the East and Western Europe, but looking at this issue in terms of globalization, we can count on a significant reduction of the gap between the smaller and major world markets. However, another problem that we encounter is the problem of terrorism, which is associated with the currently mentioned topic constituting one of the twelve important determinants of the future. Terrorism, hitting at symbols of the economy such as the World Trade Centre is trying to seriously undermine the process of economic development. The term “undermine” here is adequate, as the overthrow of the colossus which are the largest world economies is a difficult, if not impossible. Opposite of this phenomenon may be the fact of declaring war on terrorism and a huge financial expenditures allocated for stabilization missions, arming or military development. Bad financial management carried out during armed conflict can lead to state debt. Does not have to be a determinant charged to failure on any of these fields. Technological development that goes along with the arms race is also reflected in the favorable economy. It is worth to pay attention to all the benefits that technology has brought military thought, which translated into industrial patents used today for the civil market. Technological advances and technological innovation does not always translate patents and equipment for military and civilian market.
In the literature we can find examples where transplantology uses the benefits of technology is not the same as used by the military and developed during the war, but the solutions evolving from an idea or a thought developed over the years of military progress. Technological development of the XXI may in the future lead to the fact the man will be able to control life which becomes more likely with the growing pace of genetics, chemistry and biology, and the opportunities that they give us computers and, at the same time can lead to all sorts of conflicts between religious groups that not agree on the interference of man in his genetics.
As history shows many scientific fields had to survive a human blindness to people have realized that what once seemed impossible and unnatural is now on a daily basis and helps ordinary citizens.
No matter how optimistic or pessimistic the 12 Great Issues of the Future are, the mankind will have to face them. The examples I have given show how close they are linked together and what dangers may prove to be in our future. Despite the different scenarios I am not going to fell into fear but closely watch what the future will bring. We have to make careful and wise choices and our decisions have to be long-term designed because it is precisely a human being that is responsible for the biggest part of the future of the world.
Filip Bittner 24763
BBA in Management
Koźmiński University
(2466.) DO YOU SPEAK RUSSIAN?
If you speak Russian, you can get access to the e-library (http://www.znanium.com/catalog.php?item=booksearch&code=kolodko) with my two books on the world issues, published in the Russian language by MAGISTR Publishing House: “Глобализация, трансформация, кризис – что дальше?” Г.В. Колодко; Ввод. глава Р.С. Гринберг. – М.: Магистр, 2012. – 176 с., ISBN 978-5-9776-0171-9 and Мир в движении: Экономический бестселлер / Г.В. Колодко; М.: Магистр, 2011. – 575 с., ISBN 978-5-9776-0102-3. Soon my latest book in Russian (“Whither the World: the Political Economy of the Future”) will be available too.
(2465.) In this short essay I would like to discuss three issues concerning the future that are most closely associated with each other in my opinion. These are poverty, misery and social inequality, demographic processes and human migration, and war and peace, conflict and security. Poverty and social inequality may contribute to excessive growth of population, which only deepens the poverty. This in turn could lead to armed conflict and the collapse of the peace, additionally provoked by cultural differences. These three issues are linked with the fact that they all depend on conscious human activity.
Multidirectional demographic changes are one of the significant problems of the future. The growth rate of population decreases. It is a good sign, because the number of people increases, but at a slower pace. The main problem is the uncontrolled increase of population in poorer countries. Number of born children in countries where it is very difficult to maintain them is the highest. In these poor countries children have no educational opportunities and proper care, often die as infants or after a few years in extreme poverty. On the other hand, more developed countries are characterized by a small population growth, in consequence of which the difference in number of citizens of individual countries is very high – this leads to increasingly larger migration rate. Migrations are mainly caused by the desire to higher standards of living or expectations that they will be improved. One of the strongest factors that influence the migration is poverty. In order to look for a better life people decide to leave the country where they were born.
As I mentioned migrations strongly relate to the problem of poverty. The standard of living in the country depends inter alia on economic activity. In poorer countries an overwhelming preponderance of children, young people and older people over those in their prime is visible. Those are working adults, who are the most active economically group of the population. Due to the migration the flow of capital from poorer countries to richer increases. But not always successful migration is possible. Many countries “select” the necessary professionals, while closing the door for poor foreigners and inviting professionals educated by taxpayers’ money from another country. To contribute a decrease in poverty the rest of the world must get rid of greed in favour of moderation and rationality. Reducing differences in income growth could be a beneficial step, which would lead to development of poorer countries. However, this requires changes in existing value systems that focus on taking rather than giving. Strong emphasis on education of the young generation could support their actions, which play a significant role in improving the living standards of society as a whole. The richer part of the world should support the economic development of poor countries. The larger sum of money countries donate to needy ones, the less it will cost them to pay social additives for immigrants inside the country. Lack of such additives and social injustice could lead to internal conflicts.
Another area of the 12 Great Issues of the Future, which corresponds to the two aforementioned ones, is war and peace, conflict and security. There is no denial this topic is particularly appealing to me as war was present almost every day during the history of the mankind. There are many factors conditioning wars. For example destabilization in the particular region can cause a major armed intervention helping to bring peace to the threated area. The current threat however is believed to be the terrorism. Another interesting finding in the literature can be made. Since 2001 the world terrorism become more vivid to the average citizen. But what causes wars and terrorism and how it correlates with issues related with migration and poverty? The literature states that poverty nourishes terrorism yet some biased political scientist argue that poverty in fact is not the key factor related to terrorism. Is it so? Great political changes, religious reasons or personal values are no longer a factor fuelling terrorism. It is believed that poverty is an enemy of the state. For example few years ago in Afghanistan it was legal to grow poppy seeds for the opium use. US armed intervention and stabilization mission banned growing such plants for the drug industry forced local communities to terminate such procedures and look for new job opportunities. Such opportunities never came. Poverty and growing lack of opportunities forced local people to leave their homes and in fact migrate to nearby countries to look for new life opportunities or worse – to join terrorist organizations and fuel the terror machine. That is why I believe these factors correlate together.
In some cases unfortunate political decisions cause all those three factors to come into play. For example post colonialism in Africa with the “straight drawn borderlines” caused many ethnic-related wars and migration. This division split not only aboriginal tribes living in particular regions but also caused them to migrate from newly created countries to another to bond with the rest of their kind. What is more, it caused many origin-related wars due to coercive citizenships with usually conflicted tribes. Again, we can find in the literature a statement, which tells us that to prevent big wars we must first stop or at least prevent the small ones. With such divisions, many tribes were cut out of resources causing a constant impoverishment leading to, as previously stated, hard means as terrorism, violence and aggression.
How these three issues of the future correspond to each other and how they can correlate in the future? The simplest answer might be that they influence each other and they cannot coexist without each other. However the further investigation of these topics give us the better view of the upcoming future. We may use this knowledge to set a trend or even find a significant correlation to predict the future regarding war and peace, poverty and migration.
Joanna Witek
24496
Kozminski University, BBA in Management
(2464.) Chciałbym prosić o pomoc w wyjaśnieniu następującej informacji z mediów: mówi się często, że 80 czy nawet 90 procent PKB Polski jest “tworzone” przez małe i średnie przedsiębiorstwa.
Biorąc pod uwagę sposób, w jaki liczy się PKB może to jednak oznaczać coś innego, niż typowy zjadacz chleba byłby skłonny pomyśleć po przeczytaniu takiej informacji. Przykład: duży producent – na przykład – garnków sprzedaje swoje garnki do hurtowni, a ona następnie do małych sklepów, które te garnki sprzedają w wielu małych sklepach w wielu miastach Polski. Wówczas PKB związane ze sprzedażą tych garnków zostanie przypisane małym i średnim przedsiębiorstwom, a nie producentowi tych garnków, prawda? Podobnie z koncernami samochodowymi i dealerami ich samochodów. Jeśli Fiat wyprodukuje auto w Polsce, a następnie polski konsument kupi to auto od lokalnego dealera, to znowu – PKB zostanie przypisane temu dealerowi, a nie Fiatowi, czyż nie?
Do mediów rzadko przebija się informacja o olbrzymim udziale korporacji w światowej gospodarce. Częściej powtarzane są informacje o dużym udziale małych i średnich przedsiębiorstw w Europie, co ma świadczyć o odmienności gospodarki europejskiej w stosunku do USA. Sam kiedyś zdziwiłem się, że około 80% PKB Niemiec jest “tworzona” przez małe i średnie przedsiębiorstwa. Ale wówczas chyba niepoprawnie zrozumiałem, że MSP rzekomo wytwarzają 80% łącznej produkcji Niemiec. Dziś (18 czerwca 2014 r.) na antenie TVP prof. Wiesława Ziółkowska powiedziała, że …. (zdaje się 500) największych korporacji światowych jest odpowiedzialnych za około …. (zdaje się 80%) globalnych obrotów handlowych i jest to “problem”, z którym należy się zmierzyć. O ile dobrze rozumiem definicję PKB, to faktyczny udział korporacji w handlu i produkcji byłby umniejszany ze względu na podejście od strony PKB.
Jak to jest naprawdę? Bardzo proszę o pomoc w zrozumieniu tematu. Interesuję się ekonomią rozwojową, ale nie bardzo mam kogo spytać w razie wątpliwości.
(2463.) What does the future hold for the people of earth? That is something that no one can truly answer. There are some great issues of the future that can help give people some information on what is to come, depending on how these issues are faced. Three of the great issues that tie in with one another is demographic processes and human migration, poverty, misery, and social inequality, and the rate and limits of economic growth. Each of these three great issues will be instrumental in the future of the human race but all three of these particular great issues tie in with one another. If a broad solution can be found, rather than three individual solutions, a favorable outcome for the world just may be possible.
I chose these issues because they affect and influence every nation, no matter how rich or how poor. Migration has had a major impact across the globe for centuries. Whether it is a movement to Western Europe or the trek to the “New World”, migration is something that is naturally occurring. Poverty, misery, and social inequality are all things that can be seen in any nation. Most people, me included, would love to put an end to the social injustice that goes on across the globe, by fighting social injustice and helping those that are living in poverty. The final issue I chose was the rate and limit of economic growth. Economies across the globe grow or slow down, depending on what is happening in that particular nation. Social injustice fascinates me. I found that social injustice is more or less likely to occur based on economic growth. Economic growth can also be contributed to human migration. This ultimately ties in all three of these great issues of the future. Figuring out the best means to resolve an issue and working on solutions for one of the great issues, can help with solutions for the grouping of the three great issues in this particular instance. This is why I chose the three great issues that I have, they are essential for social justice throughout the world.
Looking at how these issues tie in together is quite simple when truly thinking about it. First looking at economic growth, economic growth occurs very different, both at different speeds and at different times, depending on the particular nation. Economic growth cannot sustain for any nation, no matter how rich or poor. Their growth will eventually slow, it is only natural. It would not be possible for a nation to continue with high economic growth for an amount of time such as 30-40 years. The nations that are poor must keep their GDP higher than nations that are developed. By keeping a higher GDP will help move the nation out of poverty. This is where poverty, misery, and social inequality factors in. Nations that have yet to obtain a much higher GDP, and are not yet developed, are living in a high percentage of poverty. The social injustice that is going on in these nations compared to those with a much lower poverty rate can be overwhelming to overcome.
Human migration can occur when individuals are looking for more opportunity or a better life. These nations that are living in poverty have individuals who cannot sustain living in the environment that they are. These individuals look to migrate to a nation in which they have more opportunity. A prime example of this would be the migration, mostly illegal migration, of Mexicans and other Central Americans into the United States because the United States presents them a much greater opportunity than what they could achieve in their own nation. If Guatemala presented the same opportunity that the United States did, Guatemalans would not look to migrate towards the United States because of all the opportunities that they have. With this not being the case, many are migrating towards a better life. This is also the case in many Asian and African nations. Poverty and the prospects of a better life are main reasons that force migration for so many individuals and families alike. How does this exactly tie into the other two great issues of the future? Economic growth, in many instances can or cannot happen because of the poverty level in a nation. The poverty level of a nation can also affect the migration rates and patterns. Mexico is the perfect example. Mexico had a steep decline in their Gross Domestic Product around 2008-2009. That decline cost many their jobs and livelihoods pushing the poverty levels higher in Mexico. With many no longer bringing in money, Mexico was no longer a source where these individuals could make a living; they simply had to migrate to give them a better opportunity. Thus, economic growth (GDP, prosperity of a nation) directly relates to poverty (percentage of those living in poverty in a particular nation) which then relates to human migration (leaving poverty for a better opportunity). The Mexico example is just one of dozens of other scenarios that are occurring on a regular basis through every region of the world.
No one knows what the future holds for the population of the world. What is known are that there are 12 important issues that we face as humans in the future. Not one nation can escape any of these problems, no matter what preventative measures are put into place. Social injustice and inequality holds a special place in my heart as I wish for the world population to not have to suffer based on their socioeconomic status. Three of the 12 great issues stuck out to me in particular, all of which go hand and hand with one another. Economic growth, poverty, misery, and social inequality, and demographic process and human migration all different in their ways, but also as shown with the country of Mexico, all are interdependent with one another. A dip in GDP leads to a higher rate of poverty, which ultimately leads to the migration of a chunk of the population. This has not just happened in Mexico but other nations across various parts of the world.
Aleksandra Ćwik
25170
Koźminski University, BBA in Management
(2462.) There are twelve great issues that we must think about as it pertains to our future. Each of these twelve great issues are both separate issues, with solutions and resolutions that would pertain just to the individual issue itself and also pertain to intertwining of the great issues as a group rather than an individual. There are three particular issues that I found to be intertwined with one another. If a solution or resolution for one can be found, a solution or resolution for all three can be found, together. The evolution of values and their cultural implications for development process, the natural environment and competition over dwindling natural resources, and scientific and technical process are all interconnected in some form, and both solutions and problems occur based on a chain reaction. If a solution can be found, it could fix all three great issues, if the problem persists with one of the great issues, it will subsequently affect the other two great issues as well.
These three issues I have chosen because based on the readings in the textbook and the general knowledge on those three great issues, I could tie them together, finding a chain of events which starts from one, continues with a second, and ends with a third issue. In every culture and society, they hold very different values and beliefs than another. These beliefs and values could ultimately stunt the growth of the state. Take for instance terrorists who are Islamic. While they do what they do out of hate, they truly hold the belief that they are going to heaven and be rewarded for their acts of terror. This mindset controls so many individuals who are not afraid to die and kill people in the process. What would happen if they knew they would not be rewarded for their terrorism? Would there be significantly less terrorists in the world? I would have to imagine that there would be less, maybe not significantly. These beliefs have stunted these nations, the likes of Iran, Yemen, Iraq, etc. from truly developing to their potential. So many individuals are going to terrorism, which their minds and abilities are overshadowed as they are using them for negative things and not doing something positive to help their nation develop.
Another example would be the Democratic Republic of the Congo which has been in shambles for a long period of time because of the decisions made by previous leadership. A country that is rich in minerals, is yet one of the poorest states in the world, if only the Democratic Republic of the Congo could gain some stability they could turn their state around economically. The culture that many of the current generation are used to is one of war, terror, and lack of resources such as food, water, and medicine. It is not surprise that the world is being depleted of its natural resources, as those resources are needed to fuel the consumer needs of the many. An example of this would be the numerous oil companies that drill offshore. Offshore drilling is a lucrative way for oil companies to make a lot of money. The Middle East is also an oil rich area. While there is still plenty of oil to be had for the next few generations, it will eventually run out. What happens when that resource runs out? Well the world better hope they are completely electric or fueled by solar power or so many of the comforts and luxuries that so many have will be no more, particular vehicles. A state like the Democratic Republic of the Congo has a large amount of untapped resources still. This is the case in many of these underdeveloped states. They have the natural resources there, but for a plethora of reasons they are untapped and many companies cannot take advantage of what the state has available to them.
Scientific and technical progress is near impossible in a place like the Democratic Republic of the Congo and many other less developed nations. With nations that are unstable, and in this case have a rebel presence, foreign companies are afraid to come in and invest in these states. Why should they risk their own money and employees by going into a place that they are worried about from either a rebel presence or the actual government of that particular state. Cleaning up these governments and bringing in the individuals and companies that have the knowledge and money to bring in scientific and technological upgrades would help these nations tremendously. In the instance of the Democratic Republic of the Congo, voting in good leaders to stabilize their state, relinquishing the rebel threats and bringing new business which can help educate the population could greatly move the Democratic Republic of the Congo towards the right direction.
These three things go together in terms of the twelve great issues of the future. Looking solely at the Democratic Republic of the Congo as a model, the evolution of their values or in this case the devolution of their values hinders their state. People in the DRC would fight, steal, and even kill for food, water, and/or medication. Most of these individuals do not care about their values and what is right or wrong, they simply care about survival, and when it comes to survival, many will do things that they would not ordinarily do. With the values of a majority of the DRC not as important, not many individuals and/or companies are entering the DRC to try and tap into the plethora of natural resources that the DRC has. With it being an unstable and unsafe state, companies and people are afraid to enter the DRC as they risk their lives by doing so. With no companies and individuals investing in the DRC, they lack the technology and science necessary to be successful and up to date. These three great issues of the future are as if they are dominos, when one falls, it runs directly into the next and finishes with the third domino. The DRC is just one of many examples that could have been used with these specific great issues of the future.
Filip Szulc
BBA in Management 3rd year student
24486
(2472.) That is very interesting point of view
(2461.) Forward-looking policymaking is a difficult task because of the lack of certainty about the future and the effect that our decisions have on it. However, due to the availability of various tools, for example models or programs, we have the ability to estimate and predict how the future can look like with high degrees of probability. Since we live in the ever more connected world, as members of the global community we share the collective responsibility to respond to threats of future crises and challenges. This duty stems not only from our innate desire of self-preservation, but also from the obligations we have towards the natural habitat we share with other species as well as future generations which need to be considered when seeking an answer to the questions of distributional justice.
One of the greatest challenges facing the humankind nowadays is the necessary limit to economic growth. The classic economic models almost unanimously predict global economies to grow in a steady pace in order to ensure our prosperity. However, through a pragmatic lens, everlasting growth does not seem feasible unless the technological progress is innovative and fast enough to ensure growth even in face of the inevitable depletion of resources. Moreover, addressing the issue of economic slowdowns will require different responses in developed and developing countries, the latter often needing aid in order to reach a desirable level of the living standard. Many international treaties (for example Kyoto, which considers a strategy of climate change counteraction) take into account the necessity to exempt the poor countries from paying fees and contributions in order to allow them for steady progress. Equally important to international support are internal development, which should be long-term as well as compatible with globalization and new pragmatism. With this in mind, it is possible that those countries can eradicate chronic inequalities between them and wealthy industrialized states. According to “Truth, Errors and Lies (…)” countries from Central Europe can equalize the differences in level of incomes and standards of living. In order to ensure that, it is vital for the developing states to maintain a rate of GDP growth twice as fast as in richer parts of the world (especially Europe). Another crucial step is to establish appropriate, long-term development strategies. Integration with European Union and high-developed European countries would help considerably in acceleration of economcial development. Scientists have been warning the public for several decades that most of the Earth’s resources which are also crucial to our daily routines, are not renewable. This is why sustainability is closely interconnected with the speed of economic growth. Sustainable development has been divided into three main pillars during the World Summit on Social Development in 2005. Those pillars are: environmental development, economic development and social development. All of them are connected with each other. Sustainability nowadays is one of the largest questions about the future that we face, because being sustainable in many areas of life can limit economic growth, which can be pestilent. The problem with the resources is that we have no idea how many of them have left. The rat race for new gadgetry and fashionable clothes seems like it will not stop so quickly. But the biggest problem in our century is petroleum. According to “Truth, Errors and Lies (…)” the Earth will run out if petroleum in 2040, because our current consumption equals 80 million barrels per day. However, given the lack of technologies sufficient to substitute this amount of petroleum, we are faced with the trade-off between sustainability, consumption and development.
Sustainability and economic growth are also related to yet another modern challenge, namely the population problem. The United Nations demographic forecasts predict that in 2050 there will be 9.3 billion of people. This amount comes with a lot of multidirectional demographic changes, which may pose various challenges, from health, through resource depletion, to violent conflicts. The main problems are: the overpopulation in certain regions, great migrations, the aging of population in differentiation in natural growth. The population should grow only one tenth as rapidly as it does now. Most children are born in the least-developed countries such as Somalia, where to feed and to educate them is the biggest socioeconomic challenge. This underlines enormous disparities between nations, rendering migration inevitable in many instances. With no perspectives, equality of opportunity and a growing family the poverty is deepened. Poverty contributes to malnourishment, health problems, in some cases (for example in Darfur) has been the primary cause of armed conflicts, further fuelled by ethnic divisions. Nonetheless, just as unfettered growth of population is inadvisable, lack of population growth is just as undesirable. The demographic forecasts seem to be even more pessimistic than the economic ones. Some of the societies will shrink, while others will growth and expand numerically. For instance, the forecasts for Poland are similar to those from 1962: there will be a fall from 38.5 to 30.3 million. The unfortunate conclusion is that the wealthiest societies will age faster. Germany is a perfect example: in 2030 about 30% of its population will be 65 years old. Ageing population, mass migration flows and low birth rates will have a tremendous impact on the political and economic processes around the world, for example border control, the retirement system, health care and other social services.
As challenges for the future of humankind, growth, sustainability and population fluctuations are inevitably interconnected with each other. Therefore, while looking for accurate and applicable solutions, we must bear in mind that each of the problems has various externalities and needs to be assessed inclusively from many perspectives. And since most of these threats are man-made and imminent, we are faced with a final call to act upon finding a solution before they grow too vastly to be averted.
Claudia Poczman
Kozminski Univeristy
24470
(2460) Simultaneously with the process of globalisation many, previously unimaginable, in our current knowledge apparently irreversible processes had been started, both in society and in the economy. The markets have become global and more robust, the level of international trade has increased more than a hundredfold since the middle of 20th century. Unprecedented growth taking place continuously both in economical, technological and demographical context. Due to the nature of globalisation all of the processes and challenges became interconnected. The interdependent functioning of the economy creates worldwide problems, therefore the problems appear in many countries and spill over beyond the borders. The fact that these problems are so extended means that single countries or even regional integrations are unable to solve them. Therefore appeared the need for “global governance”, to address new global issues. The issues of the future are economic, social and environmental. Many of them are correlated with each other, negatively and positively as well. In my opinion the most important issues are the worldwide allocation of the benefits of globalisation – the poor-rich gap, the question of overpopulation, overconsumption and sustainability and finally, the technological development as the biggest supporter of globalisation.
The positive effects of globalisation are evident, since David Ricardo it is proved the benefits of international trade. On the other hand, it is already apparent in the classical theory, that the partner countries do not receive equal shares form the trade benefits. However the common prosperity grows, inequality increases in the same time. This process formed the phenomenon called poor-rich gap, which increasing steadily between the first and the third world. Only some more advantaged developing countries seem to be able to catch up, like China, Japan, the “four tigers” and Brazil.
Nelson Mandela said – “Where globalization means, as it so often does, that the rich and powerful now have new means to further enrich and empower themselves at the cost of the poorer and weaker, we have a responsibility to protest in the name of universal freedom.”
It is true, that globalization can also lead to more poverty in non-industrialized, disadvantaged countries, when huge concerns, so called “global players” benefit of the resources, without involving local people. But is it fair to blame the concerns for it? In my opinion, to build the necessary infrastructure and provide the proper education for the population (what are the key requirement of industrial development), is the duty of the government. For example, Namibia, Ghana, South Africa and Mauritius, which countries are regarded as the most democratic African countries show a significant upward trend in their GDP per capita indicator. By contrast in those countries where dictatorial regimes are in power, poverty growing continuously due to the irresponsible allocation of resources.
But it is not so easy to eliminate the poor-rich gap and poverty reached the critical level in many disadvantaged countries. Due to this crowds of desperate people leave their home and migrate to developed states, hoping for a better life. Now we should note, this is a mutually beneficial situation. However, these people are less educated and usually lacking professional and language knowledge, they still can provide ideal labour for those lower (usually the lowest) prestige jobs what locals are not likely to do. In this case there is no exploitation, because even if the capitalists provide them lower wages than for the locals, it is still a much more competitive income in compare with the revenue they could earn in their home country. Nevertheless, because migrants are willing to accept lower wages, the level of wages would decrease in the industries dominated by them and ultimately the prices of the goods produced by them would decrease as well.
The problem occurs, when the labour market of the target country cannot absorb the amount of migrating labour. In this case, these people have two choices: they could try to survive on the streets by becoming the part of the black or grey economy or ask for refugee status and go to camps. The refugee camps are usually overcrowded (especially along the border of the European Union, USA) integrating many different nationalities and cultures, involving some people, who fled their home country because of military or criminal issues. In spite of the relatively high governmental expenditures, refugee camps are still not safe places for immigrants.
The population of the world follows a constantly growing trend. Two years ago in 2012 world population exceeded 7 billion and the annual growth rate is getting higher year by year. World population projected to reach 9.6 billion by 2050 according to the United Nations report published in 2013. But the capacity of our Earth is limited and once it will become overpopulated. The food supply must increase to feed the new generations. Finally, when the world has reached its limits developing countries will be unable to provide the required food supply, causing mass starvations. In really extreme cases even the visions of futuristic sci-fi movies, like Cloud Atlas can become true. This movie predicts the recycling of human body for protein to satisfy the needs of the overcrowded planet and after the fall of humanity in a post-apocalyptic world cannibalism rears its head.
Fortunately, this is only imagination yet and humanity can do a lot to prevent the dreadful visions of writers. The only thing we have to do is to stop the excessive consumption, wasting and the “carpe diem” attitude in business and private life as well and rather invest in the future. As Eric Holtz-Gimenez said: “Hunger is caused by poverty and inequality, not scarcity.” So, the key to the solution is the better allocation of resources and to ensure sustainable development.
In my opinion the issue of technological development is the most important of all, because the whole process of globalisation could not be able to begin without the industrial revolutions. Better technology is also responsible for better living standards, resulting the growing population. Technology can also support sustainable development in order to create a better future. But the coin has two sides. According to the neoclassical theory improvement in technology always makes the particular industries more capital intensive, by increasing the marginal product of the workers. It means, that workers should receive higher wages related to their productivity, but industrial processes would require less labour, which theoretically leads to growth in the unemployment rate. This is particularly worrisome if we think about the intensively growing population. However, during the history a huge sectoral shift already took place, which means a significant labour force realignment between agriculture and industry, in favour of the latter. In developed countries the industrial sector is already decreasing, and the share of services is growing in the composition of the sectors. It is clear, that in the future the expansion of services will continue.
Nandor Marmoly
29542
(2459.) Three Great Issues: There Effects on the Future
There are twelve great issues of the future that will affect every country in the world. There is no escaping these great issues. It will take trial and error before solutions will be able to be put into action, to fix the wrongs that these countries have taken. These twelve great issues can give these countries the ability to figure out what may be a problem, if not now, and then in the future and possible prevent the damage from being too severe. Out of these twelve great issues of the future, there are three that stick out and can be grouped together. The three great issues of the future being conflicts and security, war, and peace, poverty, misery, and social inequality, and scientific and technological progress. So many under-developed nations have a problem already with these issues, not to mention many more that could have issues in the future. These three issues are connected with one another, as a war or conflict begins, poverty and social inequality are naturally going to occur as part of the war or conflict and scientific and technological progress would need to be made to help better the particular country that is in question.
Looking at conflicts and security, war, and peace from a broad perspective, there is seemingly more conflicts and war today, especially in second and third world countries. Peace is also seemingly breaking down with first world nations when there are ever increasing threats to the world with the likes of Russia, which make first world countries try and find a way to end what is going on with Russia, especially when it entails Ukraine. In many of these nations, security is a major issue. Second and especially third world countries do not have the resources available, in both police and military forces to bring security and stability to their country and their citizens. On the opposite side of the spectrum is security is reached, peace is definitely a result that could happen. There are many countries that have a problem with conflict, whether it has to deal with inter-government problems, problems with different religions or rebel groups, or even issues between the government and rebel groups, conflict is not going away anytime soon as it effects so many different nations. Peace is also obtainable if the parties involved do not wish to continue with the conflict or war and compromise is met or if the country has the security measures in place to defeat various rebel or terrorist groups.
A direct result and consequence from war and conflict is that of poverty and social inequality. When war or conflicts occur, especially a civil war or conflict, it puts a large number of the population into poverty and a bigger social inequality gap would also occur. Resources are being pumped into the war efforts, rather than helping those out whom truly need it. With so much being put into the war, the citizens of the country become an afterthought for the leader of that particular country. Poverty is nothing that will ever go away, but depending on what a country spends on, and takes priority in, poverty can become a much smaller percentage in so many countries across the world. An example of how war or conflict can create so much poverty in a country would be Germany after World War I. Germany was one of the biggest powers, but the Treaty of Versailles ultimately stripped Germany of all of their money, in fact it took Germany until 2010 to pay back all of the debt that they owed. Poverty was a major issue that struck the entire country. This would be one of the more extreme examples as to what war and conflict can do to a country in terms of creating more poverty than there was originally.
While poverty and inequality can stem from war and conflict, the lack of scientific and technological innovations can stem from higher poverty and inequality in a country. Scientific and technological innovation can do so much for a country. The better technology a country has the more efficient and cost effective they can be. When a country can cut cost, which gives them more money to spend on issues that truly matter; such has helping those in poverty. Scientific discoveries are being made constantly. A country having their own scientists that are able of discovering cures for diseases and a magnitude of other uses for science could ultimately lead a country into the future, compared to where they were at. The most developed nations use the most updated technology and have the best scientists which help propel them into the future. If those second and third world nations would have the ability to spend on these things, they would be able to help themselves in the long run.
The twelve great issues are something that will affect every nation at some point in the future. There is no chance to not be affected by the twelve great issues, but countries can take precautions to help with how hard they be hit with the issues. With a majority of the twelve great issues, they can be grouped together. It is as if the twelve great issues are part of a chain of events. When one occurs, one of the other twelve great issues is bound to occur in direct result of the first and so on. Picking three of the twelve great issues of the future which seem to have some form of connection with one another was rather easy. Conflicts and security, war, and peace, poverty, misery, and social inequality, and scientific and technological progress are three issues that are part of the chain of events. When war or conflict occurs, the likelihood of poverty rising within the particular country is much higher than it was before. Once the poverty level rises, that means less money to give toward scientific and technological devices and researches that could help the progress of that particular country.
(2458.) W Iranie nakładem Monetary and Banking Research Institute ukazała się w języku Farsi, współczesnym perskim, moja książka zatytułowana “Wakyyat ha, doroogh ha, wa khata ha. Syasat wa eqtesad dar jahan motalatem” (“Truth, Errors and Lies: Economics and Politics in a Volatile World”). To już dziesiąty język, w którym opublikowany został międzynarodowy bestseller “Wędrujący świat” (http://ksiegarnia.proszynski.pl/product,40999). Książka jest prezentowana na odbywającym się w dniach 15-16 czerwca 24th Annual Conference on Monetary and Exchange Rate Policy “Monetary Policy Framework and Policies to Exit Stagflation”.
(2457.) Czas na rewolucję?
„Kilka krajów się rozpadnie – najszybciej Irak, potem niektóre na obszarze Afryki i Południowej Azji. Inne poprzesuwają swoje granice. Najwięcej w Afryce, korygując spuściznę polityczna kolonializmu i wytyczając je bardziej sensownie z punktu widzenia rozmieszczenia grup etnicznych, a nie według imperialnej metody – prostymi cięciami jak przy dzieleniu tortu.”
Napisałem to już kilka lat temu, w książce „Wędrujący świat” (http://ksiegarnia.proszynski.pl/product,40999), s. 397. Teraz – wskutek spuścizny kolonializmu, nonszalanckiej polityki Zachodu wobec „wyłaniających się rynków” i prób narzucania im nie pasującej do lokalnych realiów kulturowych polityki – proces ten nabierać może tempa. Podzielony już został Sudan, pękło Mali, nie da się utrzymać sztucznej integracji Somalii, odżywają separatystyczne demony w ludnej Nigerii. Miejsc drzemiących konfliktów jest więcej.
W Iraku właśnie były wybory, w Afganistanie akurat odbywa się druga tura wyłaniania prezydenta, Egipt ma nowego prezydenta i bynajmniej dzięki temu nie ma tam stabilizacji; na pozór paradoksalnie jest odwrotnie. Destabilizacja postępować będzie też w innych krajach. Okupowane będę nie tylko Wall Street i London…
Świat staje się coraz bardziej niebezpieczny. Trzeszczy w szwach ład – a raczej bałagan – narzucony po pozornym zakończeniu zimnej wojny, skompromitował się neoliberalizm, który doprowadził do globalnego kryzysu, już nie tylko gospodarczego, ale również politycznego i kulturowego, nie sprawdza się – bo nie mogła się sprawdzić – traktująca przedmiotowo kraje na dorobku koncepcja „wyłaniających się” rynków. Czas na rewolucję?
Jedyna szansa na zapobieżenie eksplozji niezadowolenia społecznego na skalę globalną, na zablokowanie wybuchu nowej światowej rewolucji, to rozładowywanie napięć poprzez sprzyjanie przez bogatych tego świata biednym w pokonywaniu ich ubóstwa, w ukierunkowywaniu i przyspieszaniu tempa ich rozwoju społeczno-gospodarczego, a nie wysyłanie wojsk, pouczanie, na czym polega demokracja i wykorzystywanie globalizacji dla wzbogacania nielicznych kosztem większości. Jedyna szansa na pokojową przyszłość to Nowy Pragmatyzm, o którym piszę w książce “Dokąd zmierza świat. Ekonomia polityczna przyszłości” (http://ksiegarnia.proszynski.pl/product,66008).
(2456.) Meelim Kim 29530
Three Great Issues of the Future from the View Point of Globalization
13 June 2014
It is of a great worth to discuss about some great issues of the future from the view point of globalization. Some people might argue that globalization has caused numerous problems including the gap between the rich and poor, severe competition for natural resources and environment problems among countries in 21st century. I, however, see that these problems can be solved with plausible solutions step by step. In this vein, I chose three different topics which I think the most important nowadays in my own perspectives; the unchangeable gap between the poor and the rich countries considering the limitation of economic growth; regional integration and the way it meshes with globalization; and the position and role of non-governmental organizations (NGOs). In this essay, I will clearly show and develop what I think and why I think that way.
Admittedly, the gap between the rich and the poor countries is hard to change with ease, even though the poor countries try hard to develop and grow themselves with high economic growth rate. A recent research has confirmed this. According to OECD, one of the most renowned institutes on economic cooperation and development, it was observed that the nominal growth domestic product in Venezuela has increased by 48.96% since 2007. However, this country still known as most poorest country with bad credit rating. Even though they have a lot of natural resources which can collect some money, they are set in stone. On the other hand, Germany has increased only 0.7% in 2012, one of the most smallest increasing rate among countries, but this country still maintain steady and salutary position in global stance as well as good economic advantage. As this case illustrates, it is hard for the poor countries to break their position and make a transformation by themselves without aid from developed countries. The rich-poor gap can be narrowed when not only the poor set a high goal to develop but also the rich helps them to gain power.
As a better means for this international supporting, I am in favor of the opinion that a regional integration is a vehicle for further globalization. As I mentioned above, it is an obvious hard work for lesser nations not only catch up with the great powers, but also withstand in a volatile world by themselves. That’s why regional integration can be a strategically feasible and practical solution to these countries. Here is an example of this. Poland and Ukraine both were two central countries during the former Soviet Union era. Both of them had many things in common and shared a lot, such as political, economic background and even the number of population. After the fall of the Berlin Wall, Poland joined European Union in 2004, while Ukraine maintains own system. Ukraine is not a member of EU until now. As a result of this, there are stark differences between Poland and Ukraine nowadays. Poland is experiencing steady and decent economic growth over the last year, and now, its GDP is 3.4 times higher than Ukraine’s. On the other hand, Ukraine is still under the shadow of Russia struggling with the Crimea problem as well as two revolutions broke out so far. As this case illustrates, join the regional integration organization can be a breakthrough in gaining power for developing countries.
Last but not least, I want to stress on the role of non-governmental organizations in connection with globalization. . As I wrote before, there is a limitation for growth of economy, so the poor will stay more like the poor. Therefore, join the regional integration can be a solution for these countries. Additionally, NGO’s help and voice sometimes lead a country to right direction. These organizations have a favorable influence on some sectors, which government and profit-oriented businesses have no interest. Actually, the power of NGOs is quite strong because they cover environment, social, as well as cultural aspects of development. Here is an example of North Korea. This country retrogresses to the current of the world and they court isolation by forcing and brainwashing their citizens to fit into the Kim’s family nation. Moreover, they violate North Korean with horrible prison camps, which confine people who are political and social unhittable. When a person entered camps, nobody will be governed by the rule of law. Prisoners will be sentenced hard labors, such as gold mining, logging, or farming with the specific amount of manufacturing output day by day. And it is totally unable to escape from this place because of 1000 armed guards and close observation system everywhere. Additionally, they have nuclear devices, which menace neighboring countries like South Korea, Japan and China. In spite of international criticism for their inhumane behaviors, they still abuse the human rights, research for this dreadful bomb and threat others by launching missiles. However, Korean government actually does not get involved in this problem seriously and ignore what they’ve done. At this moment, activities of NGOs have actually affected people to know about seriousness of what they do so far. Although NGO’s impact and their changes are still subtle and will take time, I am anticipating with interest the new ear in North Korea’s society. As a result, they also can be a member of international relations and develop themselves with good condition.
To summarize what I mentioned above, I am in the steadfast with the idea that globalization occur many problems but it can be solved with plausible solutions. The reasons behind this are that individual country cannot survive by one’s own, however, countries can make synergy when they gathered. Also, non-governmental organizations can do a decisive role for globalization. All things considered, the importance of those three issues cannot be underestimated.
(2455.) 3 of the Great Issues of the Future
In my opinion, the three greatest issues of the future are the Unbearable poverty in the less developed countries; Growing population and human migration from the underdeveloped countries; and finally, the Risks and conflicts, that the previous two issues cause in the economic and social life at global scale. We hear about them more and more in the news, we learn about these problems in the school and also many of us has already experienced these impacts personally. These main issues are closely related and they reinforce each other.
Nowadays, we can observe migration waves between countries and continents in the whole world. However, the most problematic ones are, when people move from the “third world”, less developed countries (mainly Africa and Middle-Asia) to the rich West. The number of people migrating is continuously growing. This is undesirable, because the social-economic systems of these countries cannot provide benefits for these inhabitants.
While, in the developed world, scientists and politicians complain about the declining birth rate, which leads to aging society, the less-developed countries face the contrary problem: more and more children are born. Both of these cause distorted population pyramids. This of course affects the less developed countries more negatively.
The reason is easy to see: the children do not (and often will not) have incomes. They can’t produce goods, they don’t have salaries, and they can’t contribute to the economic growth. Later, when this young generation grows up, they will want to work. However, the government and private sector cannot provide jobs for all off them. Therefore, the unemployment rate and also the number of poor people will be high.
Lots of people move from the villages to the cities, because they hope, the job market is better there. But many cities are already crowded and the infrastructure cannot bear a population of this scale. An increasing number of people are forced to live in shantytowns. According to the United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the urban population grows at a significant level mainly in the developing countries (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wup/Maps/maps_2011_2025.htm). This means more favelas, more slums, and more hopelessness and it taxes the social system remarkably. The governments have to provide more unemployment benefits, and have to spend more for law enforcement, because the crime rates are the highest in the poorest areas.
The population is quickly growing in the less developed countries. We know, that this has more reasons. In these countries, the under-5 mortality rate is rather high because of the uncertain health situation, thus women “have to” bear more child. Furthermore, old traditions oblige women to have lots of children there. We also know, that the alternative cost of having children is less in the poorer countries. Low wages cannot offer enough incentive to go to work. Women have to lay down less money, if they go to work, than by staying home with the children, compared with the advanced countries.
Let us look upon the theory of Richard Easterlin: According to the Microeconomic Household Theory of Fertility the demand for children in developing countries are as follows: the first two or three are “consumer goods” and the additional children are “investment goods”. Because of the lack of widespread social safety net, the parents need this investment.
Masses escape from the less developed countries to the rich Europe or to the rich United States of America. Many of us have heard about the Lampedusa. It can be seen and heard more and more in the news that people from Africa try to reach refugee camps in Europe via primitive boats. The journey is dangerous, it occurs often, that these ships cannot hold the weight of the people inside it, and sinks. The refugees are often aware, that their fate is uncertain. They also know, that they are despised by the local citizens. But maybe it is better, than if they had remained in their home countries. They often have had no other chance.
Still, the growing number of refugees creates conflicts in the social life of the host country.
I would like to share my personal experience with you: A refugee camp operates at the edge of my home city. Last year, the city leadership made a decision, that the camp would accept an increased number of refugees. Soon, the life of the people who live close to this camp (including myself) has changed. A fraction of the refugees could simply not respect the local habits, rules and culture. They would often fight with each other in the pubs, molest women, and come into conflict with the staff in the supermarkets or people on the buses. The local inhabitants quickly became fed up. They often wrote about their negative experience in the local newspapers: “Refugees often drink and use drugs on many nights on the playground… They’re harassing girls on the bus… A woman complained, that she is afraid and does not dare to go out to the street in the evening and especially not alone … etc.”
The refugees don’t care about the laws and regulations, because they only spend a few weeks in this country, and after that, they go further on to the Western, or Northern Europe. Because of these reasons, people had started to organize protests on Facebook.
The local far-right political party also held processions in the front of refugee camp. There was an enormous dissatisfaction and the situation was very serious. The city had to strengthen the protection of this area. The voices of the police cars’ sirens could be heard every evening and policemen stood on every corner. It looked almost like a state of emergency.Finally, the city leadership made the necessarily decision: an increased number of refugees are no longer accepted and curfew was introduced for those, who remain there. The situation is much calmer now.
With this story I only wished to demonstrate, how fast a peaceful life can change to chaotic.
I can understand them and I am really sorry for these people, who had to leave their homeland behind. On the other hand, they must try to conduce their own integration. They must respect the local laws, rules and traditions. However, I think, we will hear about a lot of conflicts like these from more and more countries in the near future.
István Juhász
29528
Kozminski University
(2454.) In this short essay I would like to discuss and present my view on five of the Great Issues of the Future, listed by the author in “Truth, Errors, and Lies: Politics and Economics in a Volatile World”. I would like to focus on the mutual links, interconnections and relations between Natural environmental issues and competition caused by depletion of natural resources, Demographic processes and migrations, Poverty and social inequalities, Conflicts and safety (war and peace) and the Role and status of non governmental organizations (NGOs).
In my opinion, these five defined Great Issues of the Future mentioned above, are the most significant and alarming once. All of them will have enormous impact on the future existence and everyday life of the next generations. Their huge dependence on each other is the reason why they had to be discussed together. Sadly these issues are not only a forward-looking, but also they become the present, which is just starting to reach us, and the consciousness of the people will continue to increase.
Firstly I would like to begin with the relations between natural environment and demographics. In the past, the natural environment determined the way for travellers and place for settlement. It dictated living conditions and accompanied beginnings of the civilization development. Today is the opposite and people are the one to decide about the meaning of the surroundings by imposing changes, incompatible with original characteristics of nature. In the past, humans had to go around the mountain, today we drills the hole in it. Humans also drastically use the natural environment to obtain energy and raw materials. As a result from the one side we observe huge development of civilization but on the other side we can observe consequences in the form of weather anomalies, natural disasters and familiar to everybody Greenhouse Effect. Instead of cooperation with nature and its goods, humans destroy it and in the same time destroy themselves.
Secondly I would like to focus on relations between environment, conflicts and safety, which again return to nonrenewable raw materials, especially their depletion. These conflicts may be caused by searching new available places, rich in natural resources, by huge corporations and richest and most influential governments and clashes with local societies. Another reason could be competition between current methods of energy generation and innovation and new technologies, which can end with unfair rivalry between concerns and its products. Also in some regions there is an issue of depletion of basic sources, which are essential for human functioning, for instance like water in the countries of Middle East or Africa. When it comes to safety and environment, nowadays, those two are connected to each other by NGOs, international institutions or governments, which feel responsible and try to protect nature by combating harmful effects and cessation of increasing human interference.
In this next paragraph I would like to expand interconnections between conflicts and safety, especially their relations with demographic processes like migration but also social inequalities associated with poverty and standards of life. Focusing on relations between migrations and social inequalities, the migrations are actually result of these inequalities and poverty of many people, who look for perspectives and have expectations of their future life by achieving higher standards. Besides poverty and needs of better life humans migrate, because of existing overpopulation in poorest regions of the World. Because of these features, excessive migrations concerns richest and most developed countries, which possess biggest possibilities. Unfortunately for them it is a large problem in terms of safety, especially for their citizens. That’s why governments of these countries try to limit or even close their borders, by implementing visas or passes for selected immigrants and to have control on this part of globalization. Another thing is that these restrictions, at the same time can initiate new misunderstandings and conflicts, which violate fundamental human right to travel and personal rights of good life and happiness. I think that richest parts of the World should refrain poverty, because it is a source of conflicts and huge migrations.
In the last part I would like to concentrate on NGOs and their relations with environment, demographic processes, conflicts and safety. I think that all NGOs have something common and there are things that connect all issues together, with a view to welfare of public interest. Starting with environment, most of organizations, which operate in that sector, are intended to save nature goods and combat nature disturbances mostly caused by human actions. When it comes to NGOs and demographic processes, they relations consist of fighting against poverty, social inequalities, decrease of illiteracy and ignorance in the whole World, and also support of cultural and technological progress. Finally in my opinion NGOs are a sort of rebellion and contradistinctive, therefore they lead to conflicts, which are caused by interference of government but also private matters, pressure and lobbying.
As a sum up it is important to understand that first of all these Great Issues of the Future are strongly connected in many fields. I believe that they all have an affect on each other, both the good affects as well as bad once. Somehow it reminds me of a domino effect, for instance if we lead to escalation of one problem, it will for sure have huge and negative impact on rest of the issues, which cause further disturbances and stagnation. These Great Issues are all divided, but in reality they can’t be separate, they all together form one common mechanism, linked by mutual aspects, and which can be understood as dependence. One future issue will result in escalation of another one, therefore it is crucial to understand and remember about this dependence.
Patryk Niebrzydowski
Koźmiński University
24459
(2453.) During the last couple of decades the process of globalization has picked up on speed tremendously thanks to improved methods of transferring labor, goods and information around the globe. We have to keep in mind that all of that wouldn’t have been possible if it hadn’t been for both World Wars which accelerated the development of technology and science that we now continuously build upon. Fostering the right values, behaviors and cultures is what will keep up moving forward, hopefully without any severely harmful setbacks. Therefore, in this essay I will focus on 3 of the Great Issues of the Future and how they interact with each other: the evolution of values and their cultural implications for development processes, the natural environment and competition over dwindling natural resources, and scientific and technical progress.
Along with the increasing migration of people as well as information, we are now much more aware and tolerant of the existing differences between cultures. International corporations are concerned about a culturally diverse and mutually beneficial and positive atmosphere in the workplace since many well-educated and highly skilled employees are hired from all over the world. The Earth as a global village is steadily living up to its name as cultures coexist and interact with each other creating a more open environment. An environment which values collaboration, tolerance and empathy.
People are also increasingly aware of the poor state of the environment and the soon-to-be-vanished natural resources that our present economy is largely based on. Currently, over 80 million barrels of oil are consumed each day, and without acting on it and preparing for the inevitable peak oil some time in this century, we might end up in huge trouble. The competition for the limited sources of energy like gas and oil has a negative effect on the global warming. Some try to ignore the significance of this phenomenon but the fact is, our planet is getting increasingly hotter and it doesn’t seem to be slowing down. Higher temperatures will lead to increased water levels and many now inhabited parts of the land will end up completely flooded. Too much carbon dioxide, which is also a result of burning coal, oil and gas, in our atmosphere may have a deadly outcome. Imposing a simple tax on countries and companies that emit CO2 is one of the simplest ways to reduce it to a safe level. More privately owned businesses apply sustainable solutions as they realize their positive outcomes, i.e. producing less waste and purchasing less raw materials which equals more money for further improvements and investments – also in human resources.
Another thing that will greatly influence the direction in which this world is heading is technical and scientific progress. With more sophisticated technologies, we can shift from using the dwindling natural resources to produce energy to more eco-friendly methods that, in the long run, could save humanity and the natural environment that we have such a vast impact on. It may seem improbable in the near future, but with the Internet and a higher interest in sustainability, people know something needs to be done and have already began to act. Privately developed projects promoted on the Web have a chance to change everything. One of the best recently suggested ideas is Solar Roadways, technology that went viral on the Internet in the last few months. Briefly, solar panels made of extremely durable glass would be placed on roads, parking lots, pavements, etc. and use the absorbed sunlight to produce energy. If it was implemented in the US alone, Solar Roadways would produce over three times the electricity the country currently uses, not to mention newly created jobs or decreased pollution. Investing in alternative sources of energy will also influence and encourage further development of new production methods, science and technology. Different fields of study will merge and provide new interdisciplinary sciences. Nanotechnology and biotechnology are perfect examples and are very likely to emerge as the most important motors of the global economy in the 21st century.
Democracy and its level of advancement has proven to be positively correlated with the level of economic development of a country. People seek freedom, but also fear its negative effects. We want to control the way this world is evolving and do it in the best possible way but it will be difficult to achieve without coordinating our actions. More international agreements need to be introduced to reach that goal. We can notice such trends in, for example, the European Union which does its best to systematize the actions of its members with future benefits kept in mind. Even though many (especially those promoting neoliberalism) oppose such implications and call them the violation of our freedom, they are necessary to foster the growth of production and a reasonable division of its profits for the next generations which hugely depend on the decisions made by us now.
World population constantly grows and it has already passed the 7 billion mark. If we struggle to balance the output of the economy and fairly divide it between all of the Earth’s inhabitants now, then what will happen to the world where 9 or more billion people live? Without a careful and thoughtful coordination of national politics on a global scale, positive cultural changes and progress in science and technology that focuses on protecting humanity and our one and only planet, it is only a matter of time when we run out of “luck” and become part of the Earth’s history. Institutionalization and internationally imposed regulations preceded by an increased social awareness of the fragility of our natural environment is the only way in which the current generation can help improve, or at least ensure, the lives of our future descendants and the planet on which they will live.
Culture is becoming ever more heterogeneous which results in changed mindsets that are built on tolerance, collaboration and empathy for fellow human beings. Combined with internationally imposed regulations that could lead the continuously improving science and technology in the right direction, we have a chance to change our future and make our world a better place to live.
Michał Gawęda, 23164
BBA in Management
Koźmiński University
(2451,) Issues Facing Finance
The threat that caused the economic recession has now begun to recede. The GDP of many countries has risen, while the rate of unemployment is decreasing in most parts of the world. In fact, many people’s confidence in their financial system has begun to increase, which has improved, further increasing international trade. However, we should appreciate that potential disasters have failed to materialize. Consumer consumption has not declined, there are few conflicts among the financial superpowers – apart from the Ukraine crisis, with sanctions given to prominent Russian executives – , and no national defaults by any major financial hub. As such, it is safe to say that the current global Economic, financial and political system works as programmed. Despite all this, there are three interlocked and underlying issues, which were in part responsible for tripping the whole world into the recession, making recovery a challenge. These three factors include financial dysfunction, the shift of global economic power from the US and global governance and the resurgent rise of rates of unemployment. Left unaddressed, the economic recovery would be much slower and we may even face another economic recession.
The first issue to discuss is financial dysfunction. When we look at this issue from the ground up, we can surmise that some progress made. Banks are creating and reinforcing their financial cushions, regulators have become more vigilant. Moreover, there is increased consideration of risk models. However, viewing this issue from a global perspective, we will observe that the financial distress has become more threatening as it changes shape (Altman & Hotchkiss, 2006). Organizations operating in private institutions have not shed their excessive debts; in addition, many governments have ignored this, abandoning all signs of fiscal discipline. The increasingly expanding debt of the United States, whose currency is by default the reserve currency of all people around the world, is especially worrying. At the same time, the interest rates of policies that are introduced cannot help rational capital as they are not high enough (Opler & Titman, 1994). In addition, the cross – border holding of America’s debt continues to increase overtime. Thus, revealing the existence of financial dysfunction (MULLIGAN, 2012).
Global governance is weak, despite the G20 taking the responsibility as the summit of leaders who determine the financial future for all people across the globe from the G7. We should note that few global financial institutions assisted in keeping economic relations on friendly terms among the countries of the world for the last 50 years. These organizations include; the IMF, UN, World Bank, and World Trade Organization (WTO). They failed to provide much help during the economic recession (Alexander, Dhumale & Eatwell, 2006). Despite general, non – specific agreements considered better, rather than no agreements at all, it is a challenge to find global institutions that are competent and respected.
The post crisis behavior of China suggests that the supply of money is not going to increase anytime soon. Repeatedly, Beijing has ignored sensible international calls by its trading partners to revalue its currency, as it feels that a move towards a balanced trade would have negative repercussions to its own interests. It is understandable, as the country is a newcomer in the clique of financial giants. However, it could lead to its trading collaborates to deduce that China does not share the same goals as the major global powerbrokers (Duffield, 2001). It has to adjust quickly; the global economic power has shifted from the America. Such a shift was predictable, since there was no way the United States, which accounted for about 5 per cent of the world’s population could continue dominating global trade indefinitely. This shift has made leaders in Wall Street and Washington very uneasy, and thus, they are very reluctant to make such a transition easy (Barnett & Duvall, 2005). During the days of prosperity, Americans had borrowed and consumed too much, with neither financial monitors in the central bank nor the government worrying about the international role played by the dollar (KOLODKO, 2000). When the financial “bad days” came, the US government borrowed heavily as most of the currency reserves in the world became devalued. This policy mix could without being checked result to a financial crisis, brought about by leaders in Wall Street and the US government, who want to maintain the position of the dollar as the international exchange currency (ROUBINI & MIHM, 2010).
Work usually serves as the primary source of income for a large majority of people, closely followed by social transfers and revenues from capital. Employment is crucial, as it is vital for social inclusion; with many people identified with the type of work, they do (SARDONI, 2007). Thus, unemployment and underemployment in countries around the world is a contentious issue related to political stability and social peace on one hand, and poverty on the other hand. The economic recession increased the rate of unemployment, with governments that turned to austerity measures to mitigate the effects of the economic crisis forced to lay off their employees (Agrawal & Matsa, 2013). This was especially true for countries such as Spain and Greece, with political unrests experienced as a result. When research into the reason why the rates of unemployment had dramatically increased, it was evident, that financial dysfunction had a major hand in it, as many businesses had borrowed money, but could not repay their debts in time. In a bid to reduce their expenses, and reduce the effects of the financial distress, they had no choice but to let go of their employees (Krahmann, 2003). The financial dysfunction creates a domino effect, as it makes investors less willing to put their money in vital industries, causing the industries to lack funding for their operations. Without enough funds, fewer employment opportunities are created, and the existing ones are greatly reduced. As such, the rate of unemployment increases (Hill, Perry & Andes, 2011).
There is a clear relationship between financial dysfunction and global governance. Theoretically, global governance is usually effective in the prevention of financial dysfunction from occurring because of lack of payment of mature expenses and debts involving liquidity problems, default debts, insufficiency of equity and lack of current assets for business firms (Ruggie, 2001). However, there is also a possibility of global governance having a negative effect on value when businesses are facing financial distress. The increases in debts have led many businesses to lay off their employees, resulting to higher rates of unemployment among people. However, government governance has kept the unemployment rates from skyrocketing, however, this method has fast proven unreliable since now, and too many people rely on funds from the government to be able to maintain their jobs. This will inevitably result to lower wages and lower job benefits for the workers (KOŁODKO & BRAND, 2011).
It is thus evident that global governance and the global shift of economic power, dysfunctional finances and resurgent rise of joblessness are individually contentious issues on their own right. However, it is also clear that there exists a relationship between these financial issues, and when analysts seek solution to one of them, it would be beneficial if they also consider the solutions to the other two issues.
Abdelrahman Mansour
26357
Bsc Finance & Accounting
(2450.) Szanowny Panie Profesorze,
czy mógłby się Pan odnieść do alternatywnej waluty jaką są Bitcoiny? W mediach tzw. “głównego nurtu” podnoszą larum, że jest to waluta wszelkiej maści gangsterów i szarej strefy. Czy nie jest tak, że warto się Bitcoinami zainteresować? Czyż nie będzie dobrze, kiedy lobby bankowe poczuje, że ma jakąś konkurencję? Może wówczas banki przestaną się bawić w Dziki Zachód lub przynajmniej troszkę przyhamują?
(2449.) 3 Great Issues of the Future
It is not clear that intelligence has any long-term survival value.- Stephen Hawking ; with this quote I would like to state that we as humans have attained immensely but have been at disconnect with our issues of future until recently, when mother nature has shown her wrath and capitalization has failed us all once again. In 21st century, we are global citizens and our all future challenges are global too. The Challenges are interdependent: an improvement in one makes it easier to address others; deterioration in one makes it harder to address others. Due to the nature of our challenges we can conclude that there is an advantage and a disadvantage at the same time. The issues of future are Economic, Environmental and Social. These issues can be sub categorized into 15 various challenges but I would like to focus on three very important issues; Global Population and resource crisis, sustainable development & Climate change and Rich-Poor gap. I would like to contemplate over these issues as they are closely interlinked and a major “tectonic shift “in any of these issues can bring us to a better world or a volatile one.
Looking at present global scenario it is evident how swiftly the resources are getting consumed and how resources are at their terminal decline phase. Prof. Paul R. Ehrlich has rightly pointed out the problem in his book as “Population Bomb”, describing it as the major problem which needs to be addressed. With 9.6 Billion populations in 2050, planet Earth there will suffer a massive strain on the supply side of the resources. One in eight in the world, are chronically undernourished today and 35 countries need external food assistance , keeping this in mind we can vividly imagine the picture of future .The growth of population will not only put strain on agriculture but all the resources we need to survive be it metal ,gas, coal ,energy ,oil, meat ,water ,etc and this makes us ponder about the uncertain future which lies ahead of us. But there are always two sides of a coin and rightly noted by Fred Pearce in his book “Land Grabbers”, provided with the evidence that “The general problem of rapid resource depletion that occurs in the poor countries of the world is frequently a result of foreign exploitation and not because of a country’s growing population. “ To fuel the economies around the world countries along with corporate world are using renewable and non-renewable resources unsustainably. Depleting resources and ecological problems are primarily the result of capitalism and economic decision fueling short term profit maximization. And is there a way out? There is no magic wand but a long term strategy which is sustainable development.
“Sustainable development” was born, containing three pillars — environmental, social and economic issues – that are inherently inter-linked in a balanced and integrated manner. This is one of the biggest issues we are going to face in future. The present dilemma thriving around us is that Sustainability will limit the growth. On October 2012; Earth reached its peak record high CO2 emission in other words 140% of pre-industrial level. Even though “Sustainable Development” is the buzz word around the globe, but are we really taking it seriously and do we have political consensus? Developed world wants third world to cut down the emissions and third world demands developed world to cut down and do more for sustainable development and climate change. It’s not that we as humans are not trying to bring sustenance but there is not enough unity and willingness to put enough resources for this cause. There are numerous studies projecting our future as grim and cloudy but still majority of us may not be even aware of volatile path we are walking into. Sustainability is a wide subject and it is still being studied to carve a way out for profit maximization along with sustainability. The rampant depletion of ozone, inability of ocean to absorb the CO2, ethics and accountability of corporate world and political class, welfare of society and religious tolerance are all part of sustainability. The importance of future generations is a central core concept of sustainability. Intra-generational equity (meeting human needs now) needs to be directly linked to the fulfillment of basic needs of all global citizens in the future (inter-generational equity). At present we lack political mechanisms to achieve the former, and we allow development only loosely tied to this goal to undermine capacity to achieve the latter. It has been principally agreed that environmental problems are heavily related to social and economical problems (Especially poverty and under development) that it can be ignored and a balance of wealth, prosperity and development is the call of the hour. This brings us to another major issue which will create chaos and turbulence in future; Rich- Poor gap.
One of the world’s elite newspaper “The Guardians” published an article on 20th January, 2014 with the heading “85 richest people as wealthy as poorest half of the world” with this I would like to emphasis, on how a widening gap ushers the dawn of vicious socio-economic climate that causes deterioration in all sphere of life be it national competitiveness, high crime rate, social unrest, political unrest. Today 50% of the world’s population is living on less than $2.50 a day and as this gap of rich and poor enlarges, we will see more riots, civil unrest and lot of crime coupled with violence. To get a better idea of how big is this gap we must closely look at the numbers; Out of 2.2 billion children 1 billion children living in poverty, richest 20% of this world have amassed a hefty 75% of the world’s wealth. What do these numbers tell us? Are you moving towards a better world and economical safer or creating a class of untouchables who are seen as liability rather than asset. If we keep on ignoring these so called “Untouchables” then we will be doing huge disservice to ourselves and our future generation. This rift will soon become a black hole where our future will get consumed and the world as we know it today will no longer will remain the same. We do not need to look into future to see the evidence, if you look at Europe today, you will find that far right fascist political parties are rising. This is a clear sign of frustration and anger of people at the grass root. The Philippines is one glaring example as to how unresolved socio-economic inequities can destabilize a nation with intense “pendulum politics”. There is always a different side which we must also consider while creating an image and here, it is about reduction of poverty. Countries like China and India are working hard to emancipate their huge poor population and they are relatively successful. But again, it is not enough to close this gap because at the end of the day it is closely knitted with other issues and until there is no long term plan or strategies we will not be able to deliver a better future.
Creating a demoralizing picture of future was not the aim of my paper but rather to paint the picture of the world we live in and it’s potential to create a chaotic world of tomorrow. But as the saying goes “it’s never too late to make things right”. The world needs a long-term strategic plan to address these issues with a global partnership between rich, poor, world institutions, corporate world, and governments around the world along with “US” (The humans). There is good number of law and guidelines being laid to tackle the future issue of climate change and sustainable growth and since we know enough already to tackle climate change while increasing economic growth we just need to push things harder and faster to avert unnecessary collapse of wealth, resources and humanity. “Technology” is the key to boost our production to meet the supply side of future population be it in agriculture, mining resources or developing new substitutes. We need step back from our conventional approach to poverty reduction that work in low and middle income stable countries as they do not work in fragile ones. We need to first provide them with stability, insured property rights, reduced corruption, local development decisions, healthy investment climate, free trade agreements and rule of law. This will certainly bring an order to such countries and as we know humans are the best asset, given the opportunity they will thrive and create a better world for them.
Saurabh.Singh
Kozminski University
26467
(2448.) Dzien dobry.
Jak będzie głośował Pan Grzegorz Kołodko.
Mam pytanie
Co Pan sądzi o ugrupowaniu EUROPA PLUS oraz o KSS ( kacelaria Sprawiedliwości Społecznej )
Jak oceniłby Pan program wyborczy tych ugrupowań.
Pozdrawiam.
(2447.)Akurat dzisiaj mija 20 lat, jak po raz pierwszy zostałem wicepremierem i ministrem finansów oraz przewodniczącym Komitetu Ekonomicznego Rady Ministrów. Pierwszą nominację wręczył mi 28 kwietnia 1994 roku Prezydent Lech Wałęsa. Wtedy zostałem wicepremierem w rządzie Premiera Waldemara Pawlaka. Jak do tego doszło, opisuję szeroko w właśnie wydanej książce pt. „Grzegorz W. Kołodko i ćwierćwiecze transformacji” (http://scholar.com.pl/sklep.php?md=products&id_p=2408). Kolejne trzy nominacje na wicepremiera i ministra finansów w rządach Józefa Oleksego, Włodzimierza Cimoszewicza i Leszka Millera otrzymałem od Prezydenta Aleksandra Kwaśniewskiego. 20 lat! Ten czas nie wędruje, tylko pędzi…
(2485.) ogólnie rzecz biorąc to jest blog więc nie kończąca się opowieść więc….
matematyka jest królową nauk, Pan z punktu widzenia ekonomisty wie że 2+2 =4 ale nad ekonomią w systemie demokratycznym czy komunistycznym jest prawo
więc czym różni się demokracjia od innych systemów
prawo tworzy się dla mas /o względniej liczbie ludności/
i w demokracji psuje się prawo mas na rzecz nielicznej grupy
w ustrojach komunistycznych jest wręcz odwrotnie
i to tu jest pies pogrzebany